Volatility forecasting in commodity markets using macro uncertainty

Correlation in Volatility Among Related Commodity Markets

Related commodity markets have two characteristics: (i) they may follow similar volatility processes; and (ii) such markets are frequently represented by a market aggregate or index. Indices are used to represent the performance and time series properties of a group of markets. An important issue regarding the time series properties of an index is how it reflects the time series properties of i...

Local Volatility Models in Commodity Markets and Online Calibration

We introduce a local volatility model for the valuation of options on commodity futures by using European vanilla option prices. The corresponding calibration problem is addressed within an online framework, allowing the use of multiple price surfaces. Since uncertainty in the observation of the underlying future prices translates to uncertainty in data locations, we propose a model-based adjus...

Predictive Evaluation of Econometric Forecasting Models in Commodity Futures Markets

The predictive accuracy of various econometric models, including random walks, vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, are investigated using daily futures prices of 4 commodities (the S&P500 index, treasury bonds, gold and crude oil). All models are estimated using a rolling window approach, and evaluated by both in-sample and out-of-sample performance measures. The criteria ...

Modeling and Forecasting Volatility in Indian Capital Markets

Various volatility estimators and models have been proposed in the literature to measure volatility of asset returns. In this paper, we compare empirical performance of various unconditional volatility estimators and conditional volatility models (GARCH and EGARCH) using time-series data of S&PCNX Nifty, a value-weighted index of 50 stocks traded on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Mumbai. Th...

Forecasting volatility in the Chinese stockmarket undermodel uncertainty